The Strongest 2-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 3 Apr 2024

The Strongest
2-0 HT 1-0
Gremio
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

The Strongest vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.01 — our 25% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
3.78
X/2
6%
11.35
X/X
7%
5.93
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
11%
8.66
2/X
8%
16.85
Value flag · X/1 at 3.78 — our 28% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.1pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

The Strongest v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME The Strongest EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 21%
-15% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.54/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.98
-21% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -35%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
380 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 205 · 66%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.5
31.0 Crosses 10.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

The Strongest 2-0 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME The Strongest
2-0
AWAY Gremio
1.83 xG 0.48
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
378 Passes 333
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH The Strongest vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The Strongest got the better of Gremio 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had The Strongest as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, The Strongest had 53% of the ball to Gremio's 47%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.83 to 0.48.

What was the final score of The Strongest vs Gremio?

The Strongest 2-0 Gremio in the Copa Libertadores on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for The Strongest vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a The Strongest win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split The Strongest 53%, draw 24%, Gremio 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The Strongest) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (The Strongest) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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