Universitario 2-1 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.38
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
27%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.45
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.85
6+ Goals
7%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.61
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
18%
5.02
X/2
10%
5.88
X/X
7%
3.71
2/1
4%
33.5
2/2
12%
4.52
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.6
Value flag · 2/X at 13.6 — our 12% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
38%
+9.9pp
25%
Draw
31%
-5.6pp
27%
Away Win
31%
-4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Universitario EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.80/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.26/2.30
+35% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +93% / -48%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
14.5 Crosses 15.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Universitario
2-1
AWAY LDU Quito
0.59 xG 0.33
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 1
195 Passes 372
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Box Touches 7
13 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Universitario vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitario squeezed past LDU Quito 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Universitario as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Universitario had 38% of the ball to LDU Quito's 62%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.59 to 0.33.

What was the final score of Universitario vs LDU Quito?

Universitario 2-1 LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Universitario vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Universitario win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Universitario 48%, draw 25%, LDU Quito 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Universitario) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Universitario) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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