Tacoma Defiance 2-1 Spokane Velocity — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 3 Apr 2025

📅03/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.55
No
38%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-3.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.4pp
62%
BTTS Yes
60%
+1.3pp
38%
BTTS No
40%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tacoma Defiance EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Spokane Velocity EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +50% / +50%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
300 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
Crosses 11.0
Yellow Cards 5.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tacoma Defiance
2-1
AWAY Spokane Velocity
1.27 xG 1.54
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 12
479 Passes 553
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 46
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tacoma Defiance vs Spokane Velocity
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tacoma Defiance nicked a narrow win over Spokane Velocity 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tacoma Defiance as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tacoma Defiance had 46% of the ball to Spokane Velocity's 54%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.27 to 1.54.

What was the final score of Tacoma Defiance vs Spokane Velocity?

Tacoma Defiance 2-1 Spokane Velocity in the USA - Open Cup on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tacoma Defiance vs Spokane Velocity?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tacoma Defiance win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tacoma Defiance 41%, draw 27%, Spokane Velocity 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tacoma Defiance), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tacoma Defiance) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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