Liepaja 2-5 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 3 Apr 2025

📅03/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
54%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
26%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+7.8pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.7pp
54%
Away Win
64%
-10.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 69%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
0.76/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/1.26
-42% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
242 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 81%
11.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
12.4 Crosses 26.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Riga FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.71 xG 2.43
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
263 Passes 507
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.09.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
07.07.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-3 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
14.05.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
04.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 4-0 HT 2-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
25.09.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 3-1 HT 2-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
20.09.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LETK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
2-5
AWAY Riga FC
0.67 xG 3.41
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 3
243 Passes 397
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 42
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC ran out comfortable winners over Liepaja 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Liepaja had 40% of the ball to Riga FC's 60%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 0.67 to 3.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Liepaja and 2.33 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs Riga FC?

Liepaja 2-5 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 23%, draw 23%, Riga FC 54%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✓ Over 2.5
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