Velez Sarsfield vs CA Penarol Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Velez Sarsfield v CA Penarol — Team-Based Signals
Velez Sarsfield vs CA Penarol Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Velez Sarsfield
CON CSA
0-0
HT 0-0
CA Penarol
CON CSA
1-1
HT 0-0
Velez Sarsfield
HAZ
3-1
HT 1-1
CA Penarol
LKU
0-1
HT 0-0
Velez Sarsfield
LKU
2-1
HT 1-1
CA Penarol
LKU
Velez Sarsfield 2-1 CA Penarol — Actual Match Statistics
Velez Sarsfield nicked a narrow win over CA Penarol 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Velez Sarsfield as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 71% of the ball to CA Penarol's 29%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 1.42 to 0.65.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Velez Sarsfield had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.67 for CA Penarol.
What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs CA Penarol?
Velez Sarsfield 2-1 CA Penarol in the Copa Libertadores on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs CA Penarol?
Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 44%, draw 31%, CA Penarol 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.