MTK Budapest 4-2 MOL Fehervar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - Cup, 3 Apr 2025

📅03/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 34%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
0.47/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/0.55
-71% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
1W-1D-4L
AWAY MOL Fehervar
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.93 xG 1.38
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
383 Passes 370
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 3-2 HT 1-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
30.08.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
03.05.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 4-0 HT 3-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
10.02.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-2 HT 0-2 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
08.10.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 3-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
10.04.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
4-2
AWAY MOL Fehervar
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs MOL Fehervar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest beat MOL Fehervar 4-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; MTK Budapest found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 63% of the ball to MOL Fehervar's 37%, shots finished 14-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MOL Fehervar led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for MTK Budapest and 2.17 for MOL Fehervar.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs MOL Fehervar?

MTK Budapest 4-2 MOL Fehervar in the Hungary - Cup on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs MOL Fehervar?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 38%, draw 25%, MOL Fehervar 36%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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