MTK Budapest 3-2 MOL Fehervar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
11.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 26% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -6%
1.87/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.58
+1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 81%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
17.3 Crosses 16.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
0W-1D-5L
AWAY MOL Fehervar
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.69 xG 1.59
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
371 Passes 386
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.08.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
03.05.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 4-0 HT 3-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
10.02.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-2 HT 0-2 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
08.10.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 3-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
10.04.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
11.12.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-2 HT 0-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
3-2
AWAY MOL Fehervar
1.89 xG 0.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 1
429 Passes 309
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs MOL Fehervar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest squeezed past MOL Fehervar 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had MTK Budapest as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 57% of the ball to MOL Fehervar's 43%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.89 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold MTK Budapest's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MOL Fehervar led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for MTK Budapest and 2.17 for MOL Fehervar.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs MOL Fehervar?

MTK Budapest 3-2 MOL Fehervar in the Hungary - NB I on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs MOL Fehervar?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 47%, draw 24%, MOL Fehervar 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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