Once Caldas 1-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+1.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.7pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 39%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.17/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.18
-11% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 79%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.3 Crosses 14.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.18 xG 1.46
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
326 Passes 312
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.10.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-5 HT 1-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
20.04.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
29.09.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
17.03.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
02.10.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
12.05.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-1
AWAY Independiente Medellin
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
336 Passes 273
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas and Independiente Medellin shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Once Caldas had 54% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 46%, shots finished 13-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Once Caldas and 2.33 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?

Once Caldas 1-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 39%, draw 24%, Independiente Medellin 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Once Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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