Finn Harps 1-0 Treaty United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
37%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.67
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.39
6+ Goals
10%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 34% vs market 31.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
45%
-12.3pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.5pp
37%
Away Win
27%
+9.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Treaty United EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +4%
0.90/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.27
-41% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
243 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finn Harps
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Treaty United
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 0-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
06.10.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 2-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
11.08.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
26.05.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 0-3 HT 0-2 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
14.04.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 2-0 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
POST-MATCH Finn Harps vs Treaty United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps nicked a narrow win over Treaty United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 37%) promised a tight game; Finn Harps found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Finn Harps had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Finn Harps and 0.60 for Treaty United.

What was the final score of Finn Harps vs Treaty United?

Finn Harps 1-0 Treaty United in the Ireland - 1st Division on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finn Harps vs Treaty United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Finn Harps 32%, draw 31%, Treaty United 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Treaty United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Treaty United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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