Univ College Dublin 1-0 Longford Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 3 May 2024

Univ College Dublin
1-0 HT 1-0
Longford Town
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Ireland - 1st Division – 2024

Univ College Dublin vs Longford Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
32%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
56%
-14.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
32%
Away Win
20%
+12.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Univ College Dublin v Longford Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Univ College Dublin EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Longford Town EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.28/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.59
+30% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Univ College Dublin vs Longford Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Univ College Dublin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Longford Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.03.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İR1
27.08.2021 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 2-1 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İRK
31.10.2020 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 2-3 HT 1-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
21.09.2020 Longford Town Longford Town 3-1 HT 0-1 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İR1
31.07.2020 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 0-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
22.09.2018 Longford Town Longford Town 2-2 HT 0-2 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İR1
POST-MATCH Univ College Dublin vs Longford Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Univ College Dublin squeezed past Longford Town 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Univ College Dublin as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Univ College Dublin and 1.67 for Longford Town.

What was the final score of Univ College Dublin vs Longford Town?

Univ College Dublin 1-0 Longford Town in the Ireland - 1st Division on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Univ College Dublin vs Longford Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Univ College Dublin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Univ College Dublin 42%, draw 26%, Longford Town 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Univ College Dublin), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Univ College Dublin) ✓ Under 2.5
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