Aguia de Maraba 1-3 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.4
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
50%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
15%
+10.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
50%
Away Win
61%
-11.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.6pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguia de Maraba EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 66%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.05
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -42%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
248 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.8
Crosses 19.4
Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aguia de Maraba
1-3
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.09 xG 1.24
24% Ball Possession 76%
4 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 9
169 Passes 635
74% Pass Accuracy 90%
3 Box Touches 33
4 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aguia de Maraba vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo saw off Aguia de Maraba 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aguia de Maraba had 24% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 76%, shots finished 4-22, expected goals 0.09 to 1.24.

What was the final score of Aguia de Maraba vs Sao Paulo?

Aguia de Maraba 1-3 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Cup on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguia de Maraba vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Aguia de Maraba 26%, draw 24%, Sao Paulo 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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