Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 3 May 2024

Palmeiras
2-1 HT 0-0
Botafogo SP
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2024

Palmeiras vs Botafogo SP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.32
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.03
Over 2.5
41%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.24
6+ Goals
9%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 33% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.69
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
20.55
X/1
12%
3.36
X/2
8%
15.5
X/X
10%
5.96
2/1
12%
25.5
2/2
9%
13.45
2/X
7%
21.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
71%
-19.2pp
26%
Draw
18%
+7.9pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
45%
+14.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
55%
-14.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.5pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Botafogo SP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.81/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/0.39
-8% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +102%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 70%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.3 Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards –

Palmeiras vs Botafogo SP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
269 Passes 146
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
The Meetings
20.01.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BREPAU
19.04.2021 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BREPAU
24.01.2019 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
21.01.2018 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BREPAU
05.02.2017 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
31.01.2016 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-2 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BREPAU

Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo SP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-1
AWAY Botafogo SP
2.57 xG 0.78
69% Ball Possession 31%
27 Total Shots 12
11 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
496 Passes 163
88% Pass Accuracy 66%
44 Box Touches 13
32 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Botafogo SP 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Palmeiras had 69% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 31%, shots finished 27-12, expected goals 2.57 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Palmeiras and 0.00 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Botafogo SP?

Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Cup on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 52%, draw 26%, Botafogo SP 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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