Botafogo 1-0 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
19.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.9
X/1
15%
3.59
X/2
8%
11.2
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
9.6
2/X
6%
17.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.7pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 21%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.86/0.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.56
-46% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 4.0
25.9 Crosses 9.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.23 xG 1.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
314 Passes 318
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR2
01.07.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
24.09.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 3-4 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.05.2018 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
01.10.2017 Botafogo Botafogo 2-3 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
15.06.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 0-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
1-0
AWAY Vitoria
1.10 xG 0.71
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 5
468 Passes 346
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo squeezed past Vitoria 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Botafogo had 55% of the ball to Vitoria's 45%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.10 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Botafogo and 1.50 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Vitoria?

Botafogo 1-0 Vitoria in the Brazil - Cup on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 53%, draw 23%, Vitoria 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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