Montedio Yamagata 2-2 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.08
6+ Goals
8%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 33% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / -6%
1.53/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.86
+40% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
467 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
454 Passes 198
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.09.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
03.05.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
30.10.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-3 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
10.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
31.08.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-2 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
03.04.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2-2
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 11
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata and Fagiano Okayama shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 53% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 47%, shots finished 15-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.17 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Fagiano Okayama?

Montedio Yamagata 2-2 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J2 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 34%, draw 29%, Fagiano Okayama 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
3 May 2024
07:10 Tokushima Vortis vs Ehime FC Analysis →
08:00 Ventforet Kofu vs Oita Trinita Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama FC vs Mito HollyHock Analysis →
08:00 Fujieda MYFC vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Analysis →
08:00 V-Varen Nagasaki vs Blaublitz Akita Analysis →
08:00 Roasso Kumamoto vs Kagoshima United Analysis →