Shimizu S-Pulse 4-1 Tochigi SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
15%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.74
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.25 — our 29% vs market 25.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
68%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.1pp
15%
Away Win
12%
+3.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.98/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.67
-5% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
584 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Tochigi SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2023 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 1-1 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
29.04.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 2-0 HT 2-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
4-1
AWAY Tochigi SC
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tochigi SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse ran out comfortable winners over Tochigi SC 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shimizu S-Pulse as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 56% of the ball to Tochigi SC's 44%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Shimizu S-Pulse had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 0.50 for Tochigi SC.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tochigi SC?

Shimizu S-Pulse 4-1 Tochigi SC in the Japan - J2 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tochigi SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 61%, draw 24%, Tochigi SC 15%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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