Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 3 May 2025

Aston Villa
1-0 HT 1-0
Fulham
📅03/05/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
34%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.07
Over 2.5
60%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.06
6+ Goals
14%
9.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.46
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
10%
4.66
X/2
15%
8.4
X/X
7%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.45
2/2
12%
6.1
2/X
9%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
51%
-9.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+10.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.5pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Fulham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Fulham EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
2.01/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.45
+11% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
357 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
18.0 Crosses 19.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Aston Villa vs Fulham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Fulham
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.66 xG 1.19
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 Passes 406
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Fulham Fulham 1-3 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
17.02.2024 Fulham Fulham 1-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
12.11.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 2-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
27.07.2023 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa HAZPL
25.04.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
20.10.2022 Fulham Fulham 3-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-0
AWAY Fulham
0.96 xG 0.85
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
389 Passes 349
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Fulham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa squeezed past Fulham 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aston Villa had 52% of the ball to Fulham's 48%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.96 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Aston Villa and 1.00 for Fulham.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Fulham?

Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham in the England - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Fulham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 41%, draw 24%, Fulham 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
3 May 2025
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