Fulham 1-3 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
14%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.38
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
5%
12.65
X/1
17%
5.33
X/2
9%
6.0
X/X
14%
4.73
2/1
13%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.0
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-0.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.63/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.40
+40% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
307 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 76%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
22.3 Crosses 16.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.05 xG 1.63
52% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
392 Passes 346
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Fulham Fulham 1-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
12.11.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 2-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
27.07.2023 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa HAZPL
25.04.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
20.10.2022 Fulham Fulham 3-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
04.04.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
1-3
AWAY Aston Villa
1.78 xG 1.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 11
377 Passes 361
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 27
30 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa saw off Fulham 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fulham at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Fulham had 52% of the ball to Aston Villa's 48%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.78 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fulham and 1.83 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Aston Villa?

Fulham 1-3 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fulham win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fulham 42%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fulham) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fulham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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