Southampton 2-3 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 19 Oct 2024

Southampton
2-3 HT 2-0
Leicester City
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Southampton vs Leicester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.0
Over 2.5
57%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.2
6+ Goals
14%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.92
1/2 EV+ ✓
8%
32.0
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
12%
4.9
X/2
15%
6.83
X/X
8%
4.92
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
13%
4.65
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 32.0 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+6.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
46%
-3.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
54%
+3.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Southampton v Leicester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.31/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.49
-6% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
20.6 Crosses 16.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Southampton vs Leicester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Leicester City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.14 xG 2.23
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
352 Passes 381
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.04.2024 Leicester City Leicester City 5-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
15.09.2023 Southampton Southampton 1-4 HT 1-3 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL
04.03.2023 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
20.08.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 1-2 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
22.05.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 4-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
01.12.2021 Southampton Southampton 2-2 HT 2-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP

Southampton 2-3 Leicester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
2-3
AWAY Leicester City
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 6
297 Passes 420
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leicester City nicked a narrow win over Southampton 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Leicester City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Southampton had 42% of the ball to Leicester City's 58%, shots finished 14-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Southampton and 2.67 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Leicester City?

Southampton 2-3 Leicester City in the England - Premier League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Southampton 39%, draw 25%, Leicester City 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Southampton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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