Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.98
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 25% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.14
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.36
X/2
9%
9.99
X/X
13%
5.71
2/1
7%
21.6
2/2
12%
7.61
2/X
8%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-10.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +15%
1.70/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.83
+3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +12%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
450 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
35.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
22.1 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bournemouth
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.92 xG 0.98
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
474 Passes 286
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
25.07.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 1-1 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth HAZ
04.05.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 3-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
30.09.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-4 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
04.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
20.08.2022 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
1-2
AWAY Bournemouth
1.42 xG 0.97
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
363 Passes 345
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 10
8 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth edged past Arsenal 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Arsenal had 50% of the ball to Bournemouth's 50%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.42 to 0.97 — the balance of chances actually favoured Arsenal.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Arsenal and 0.83 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 45%, draw 27%, Bournemouth 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Arsenal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5
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İNP More England - Premier League
3 May 2025
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