Arsenal 1-1 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Jul 2024

Arsenal
1-1 HT 1-0
Bournemouth
📅25/07/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
3.14
Over 2.5
51%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.32
No
49%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
7.95
2-3 Goals
39%
2.3
4-5 Goals
24%
2.39
6+ Goals
11%
4.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 7.95 — our 26% vs market 8.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.49
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
10%
5.17
X/2
10%
7.88
X/X
14%
6.9
2/1
8%
18.85
2/2
12%
4.42
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.8pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
28%
+20.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
72%
-20.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
72%
-20.4pp
49%
BTTS No
28%
+20.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Bournemouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.34/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/1.71
+38% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 81%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
10.6 Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Arsenal vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Bournemouth
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.10 xG 0.96
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
505 Passes 273
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
42 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.05.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 3-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
30.09.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-4 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
04.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
20.08.2022 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.01.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-2 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal FAK
26.12.2019 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 1-1 Bournemouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
1-1
AWAY Bournemouth
0.51 xG 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
455 Passes 348
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal and Bournemouth couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Arsenal had 56% of the ball to Bournemouth's 44%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.51 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Arsenal 1-1 Bournemouth in the Friendlies on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 42%, draw 28%, Bournemouth 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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