Las Palmas 2-3 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.68 — our 25% vs market 21.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.71
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
10%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.74
X/2
12%
6.18
X/X
12%
4.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
29.5
2/2
15%
4.17
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.9pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -23%
1.20/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.27
+15% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
250 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.8 Crosses 22.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Valencia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.48 xG 1.36
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
477 Passes 267
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2024 Valencia Valencia 2-3 HT 1-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
10.02.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
18.08.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
20.01.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-1 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
09.01.2018 Valencia Valencia 4-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İSPK
03.01.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
2-3
AWAY Valencia
1.71 xG 1.39
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
319 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 19
37 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia nicked a narrow win over Las Palmas 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Valencia made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Las Palmas had 53% of the ball to Valencia's 47%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.71 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Las Palmas had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Las Palmas and 1.50 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Valencia?

Las Palmas 2-3 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Palmas win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 40%, draw 27%, Valencia 34%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Las Palmas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Las Palmas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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