Villarreal 4-2 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.89
6+ Goals
12%
8.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.32 — our 27% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.74
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
17.05
X/1
17%
4.01
X/2
9%
13.7
X/X
8%
6.78
2/1
9%
21.05
2/2
9%
11.1
2/X
6%
19.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.3pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.8pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.3pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.91/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.33
+10% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +19%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
454 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
18.5 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Osasuna
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.75 xG 0.86
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
409 Passes 294
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.11.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 2-2 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
25.05.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 1-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
26.11.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
19.03.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
17.10.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
05.03.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
4-2
AWAY Osasuna
2.19 xG 1.36
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
331 Passes 401
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal got the better of Osasuna 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Villarreal had 44% of the ball to Osasuna's 56%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.19 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Villarreal and 0.83 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Osasuna?

Villarreal 4-2 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 54%, draw 23%, Osasuna 23%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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