Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.42
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.56
6+ Goals
9%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 28% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.72
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
14%
5.67
X/2
11%
5.81
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
13%
3.85
2/X
8%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-2.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.19/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.40
-5% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
24.1 Crosses 13.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Villarreal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.80 xG 1.41
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 433
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 1-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
26.11.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
19.03.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
17.10.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
05.03.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
17.10.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
2-2
AWAY Villarreal
1.02 xG 2.53
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 8
255 Passes 409
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 39
7 Crosses 25
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna and Villarreal couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osasuna had 40% of the ball to Villarreal's 60%, shots finished 4-16, expected goals 1.02 to 2.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Osasuna and 1.67 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Villarreal?

Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 38%, draw 30%, Villarreal 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osasuna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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