Valladolid 1-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 May 2025

Valladolid
1-2 HT 1-0
Barcelona
📅03/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Valladolid vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
61%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.61
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.67
2-3 Goals
37%
2.05
4-5 Goals
31%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
5.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
12.25
1/2 EV+ ✓
10%
19.35
1/X
6%
20.7
X/1
6%
15.95
X/2
23%
4.08
X/X
8%
8.22
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
29%
1.6
2/X
7%
18.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.35 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
14%
+3.5pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.2pp
61%
Away Win
68%
-6.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.0pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valladolid v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 72%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +8%
1.05/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/1.08
-18% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -4%
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
281 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 508 · 87%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
17.9 Crosses 16.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Valladolid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Barcelona
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.95 xG 2.77
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
243 Passes 581
77% Pass Accuracy 90%
11 Box Touches 42
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.08.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 7-0 HT 3-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
23.05.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 3-1 HT 2-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
28.08.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
05.04.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
23.12.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 0-3 HT 0-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
22.12.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 0-3 HT 0-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Valladolid 1-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
1-2
AWAY Barcelona
0.64 xG 1.93
19% Ball Possession 81%
5 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
97 Passes 634
63% Pass Accuracy 90%
9 Box Touches 37
13 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona edged past Valladolid 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Valladolid had 19% of the ball to Barcelona's 81%, shots finished 5-24, expected goals 0.64 to 1.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Barcelona's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Valladolid and 3.17 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Barcelona?

Valladolid 1-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 18%, draw 21%, Barcelona 61%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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