Saarbrücken 4-3 Verl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.36
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
14.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.68 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
11%
13.4
X/1
18%
4.78
X/2
12%
7.3
X/X
9%
4.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
25.0
2/2
10%
5.42
2/X
6%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Verl EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.60/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.73
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.7 Crosses 13.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saarbrücken
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Verl
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
168 Passes 435
57% Pass Accuracy 79%
8 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.12.2024 Verl Verl 1-1 HT 1-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
23.01.2024 Verl Verl 0-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
23.08.2023 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 4-3 HT 1-2 Verl Verl AL3
28.01.2023 Verl Verl 2-0 HT 1-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
23.07.2022 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 1-0 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
23.04.2022 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 1-2 HT 1-1 Verl Verl AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saarbrücken
4-3
AWAY Verl
32% Ball Possession 68%
13 Total Shots 24
6 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 8
210 Passes 533
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Saarbrücken vs Verl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saarbrücken squeezed past Verl 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Saarbrücken as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Saarbrücken had 32% of the ball to Verl's 68%, shots finished 13-24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Saarbrücken and 1.33 for Verl.

What was the final score of Saarbrücken vs Verl?

Saarbrücken 4-3 Verl in the Germany - 3rd Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saarbrücken vs Verl?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Saarbrücken 46%, draw 25%, Verl 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saarbrücken), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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