Shamakhi 1-1 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.18
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
42%
-10.1pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.8pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
0.83/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.04
-35% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shamakhi
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sebail FK
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2025 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-2 HT 0-1 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
14.12.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-0 HT 0-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
05.10.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
20.12.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 6-0 HT 2-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERK
26.01.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 2-1 HT 0-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
23.10.2022 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
POST-MATCH Shamakhi vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shamakhi and Sebail FK shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 32% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Shamakhi and 1.50 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Shamakhi vs Sebail FK?

Shamakhi 1-1 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shamakhi vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sebail FK win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Shamakhi 32%, draw 32%, Sebail FK 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sebail FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sebail FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
3 May 2025
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