LDU Quito 2-2 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +23%
1.66/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.50
-4% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +33%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 75%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.9 Crosses 14.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LDU Quito
2W-4D-0L
AWAY El Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.35 xG 0.84
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
297 Passes 156
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
25 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.02.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKVSK
03.10.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
22.09.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-1 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
06.04.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
19.08.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
20.03.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LDU Quito
2-2
AWAY El Nacional
1.19 xG 2.00
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 1
317 Passes 154
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH LDU Quito vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LDU Quito and El Nacional shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had LDU Quito at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, LDU Quito had 65% of the ball to El Nacional's 35%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 1.19 to 2.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for LDU Quito and 0.33 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of LDU Quito vs El Nacional?

LDU Quito 2-2 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LDU Quito vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split LDU Quito 55%, draw 23%, El Nacional 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
3 May 2025
03:00 Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta Analysis →