LDU Quito 1-1 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
62%
-6.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.1pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.1pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +27%
1.73/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.44
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +31%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
330 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 73%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
20.4 Crosses 14.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LDU Quito
5W-1D-0L
AWAY El Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.67 xG 0.77
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 Passes 180
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
19.08.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
20.03.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
25.10.2020 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
29.02.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 0-3 HT 0-2 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
02.09.2019 LDU Quito LDU Quito 2-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LDU Quito
1-1
AWAY El Nacional
1.82 xG 1.09
62% Ball Possession 38%
25 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
329 Passes 179
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
34 Box Touches 5
32 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH LDU Quito vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LDU Quito and El Nacional couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had LDU Quito at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, LDU Quito had 62% of the ball to El Nacional's 38%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 1.82 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for LDU Quito and 0.17 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of LDU Quito vs El Nacional?

LDU Quito 1-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LDU Quito vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split LDU Quito 56%, draw 25%, El Nacional 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (LDU Quito), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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