Groningen 6-1 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.98
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.72
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
17.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
3.98
X/2
6%
14.45
X/X
7%
6.4
2/1
8%
22.45
2/2
8%
12.15
2/X
7%
19.9
Value flag · X/1 at 3.98 — our 29% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-7.8pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.2pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.73/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.93
+16% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.3 Crosses 17.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.60 xG 1.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
326 Passes 297
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.08.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-2 HT 0-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
15.04.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-1 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
07.10.2022 Groningen Groningen 2-3 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
01.05.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 3-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
07.11.2021 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
20.03.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 2-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
6-1
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
3.60 xG 1.01
44% Ball Possession 56%
22 Total Shots 9
12 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
285 Passes 383
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Groningen vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen ran out comfortable winners over RKC Waalwijk 6-1. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Groningen had 44% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 56%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 3.60 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Groningen and 2.17 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of Groningen vs RKC Waalwijk?

Groningen 6-1 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Groningen 58%, draw 23%, RKC Waalwijk 20%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Over 2.5
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