PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
18%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
4.0
Over 2.5
69%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.88
No
44%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
10.1
2-3 Goals
32%
2.6
4-5 Goals
36%
2.3
6+ Goals
17%
3.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.2
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
33.0
X/1
19%
4.19
X/2
6%
35.0
X/X
7%
15.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.8
2/2
7%
33.0
2/X
4%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
82%
-18.1pp
17%
Draw
10%
+7.0pp
18%
Away Win
7%
+11.1pp
31%
Under 2.5
22%
+9.5pp
69%
Over 2.5
78%
-9.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.7pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 9%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +15%
2.86/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.21
+24% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +10%
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
478 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
44.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
25.7 Crosses 10.8
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.52 xG 0.79
71% Ball Possession 29%
21 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
565 Passes 178
87% Pass Accuracy 65%
48 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-3 HT 1-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
12.05.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
21.10.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
14.05.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.01.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
20.03.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-0 HT 3-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
3.44 xG 0.26
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
543 Passes 237
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 4
20 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven ran out comfortable winners over Fortuna Sittard 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 66% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 34%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 3.44 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.00 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard?

PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 64%, draw 17%, Fortuna Sittard 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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