NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 May 2025

NEC Nijmegen
1-1 HT 0-1
Willem II
📅03/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.76
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.99
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
19%
4.12
X/2
6%
11.0
X/X
9%
5.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
21.9
2/2
6%
8.84
2/X
5%
17.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.9 — our 13% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
60%
+0.1pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.8pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.63/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.50
+5% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
24.8 Crosses 19.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Willem II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.40 xG 0.89
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
371 Passes 371
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.12.2024 Willem II Willem II 4-1 HT 2-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
22.12.2021 Willem II Willem II 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
12.09.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
15.01.2017 Willem II Willem II 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
25.09.2016 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
17.01.2016 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL

NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-1
AWAY Willem II
2.29 xG 0.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
359 Passes 386
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen and Willem II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had NEC Nijmegen at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 50% of the ball to Willem II's 50%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 2.29 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.67 for Willem II.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?

NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 60%, draw 20%, Willem II 20%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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