Atyrau 1-2 Ordabasy Shymkent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.52
Over 2.5
46%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+7.8pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.3pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-7.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+7.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atyrau EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
0.83/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.74
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
243 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atyrau
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
42% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0 HT 1-0 Atyrau Atyrau KAZP
06.03.2024 Atyrau Atyrau 1-1 HT 0-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
15.07.2023 Atyrau Atyrau 1-1 HT 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
03.06.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 2-1 HT 2-0 Atyrau Atyrau KAZP
01.10.2022 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 2-0 HT 1-0 Atyrau Atyrau KAZP
29.07.2022 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-2 HT 1-1 Atyrau Atyrau KAZKK
POST-MATCH Atyrau vs Ordabasy Shymkent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ordabasy Shymkent squeezed past Atyrau 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ordabasy Shymkent as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ordabasy Shymkent led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atyrau and 1.33 for Ordabasy Shymkent.

What was the final score of Atyrau vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Atyrau 1-2 Ordabasy Shymkent in the Kazakistan - Super League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atyrau vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ordabasy Shymkent win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atyrau 34%, draw 25%, Ordabasy Shymkent 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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