FC Sochi 5-1 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.5pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.51/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.02
+0% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
Crosses 6.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Sochi
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.07 xG 0.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
363 Passes 336
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.10.2024 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS1
26.02.2022 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS
31.10.2021 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
27.02.2021 FC Sochi FC Sochi 4-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS
20.09.2020 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 3-2 HT 2-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
01.03.2020 FC Sochi FC Sochi 1-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS
POST-MATCH FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Sochi ran out comfortable winners over Arsenal Tula 5-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Sochi as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Sochi had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Sochi and 1.17 for Arsenal Tula.

What was the final score of FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula?

FC Sochi 5-1 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Sochi win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split FC Sochi 52%, draw 26%, Arsenal Tula 22%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Sochi) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Sochi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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