V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 31% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+8.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 34%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.67/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.16
-20% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
14.3 Crosses 17.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
2.77 xG 1.41
38% Ball Possession 62%
16 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
202 Passes 443
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.02.2026 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-3 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
15.09.2018 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-4 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
12.05.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 3-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
21.10.2017 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-2
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
2.20 xG 0.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 9
277 Passes 309
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus edged past V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 50% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 50%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.20 to 0.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured V-Varen Nagasaki.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.25 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 35%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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