Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
14%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 25%
-8% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.45/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.27
-20% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +36%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.9 Crosses 16.9
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.98 xG 0.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
404 Passes 258
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2026 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-2 HT 0-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
13.09.2025 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-4 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
24.05.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
09.11.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
18.05.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-3 HT 0-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
30.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-1
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka and Avispa Fukuoka couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 54% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 46%, shots finished 7-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.50 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 50%, draw 26%, Avispa Fukuoka 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
3 May 2026
08:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →
10:00 Kashima Antlers vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
11:00 V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus Analysis →