Tigres UANL 3-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
22%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.74
Over
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.76
2-3
41%
1.7
4-5
20%
3.75
6+
8%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.76 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.52
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
15%
4.33
X/2
6%
8.01
X/X
13%
4.44
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.51
2/X
7%
14.95
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL The Market 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara The Market 27%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -17%
1.38/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.36
-12% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.6 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.21 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
359 Passes 359
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.04.2026 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-1 HT 2-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
18.09.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.01.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
25.08.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
22.01.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-4 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
3-1
AWAY Guadalajara
2.03 xG 1.01
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
447 Passes 318
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Tigres UANL put daylight between themselves and Guadalajara 3-1. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 49%, coin-flips both.

On the day, possession split 58% to 42% in Tigres UANL's favour, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.03 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Tigres UANL against 0.50 for Guadalajara.

Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Result & Final Score

Tigres UANL 3-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 52%, draw 26%, Guadalajara 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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