Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tigres UANL v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-4
HT 0-1
Tigres UANL
MEK
2-3
HT 2-0
Tigres UANL
MEK
Tigres UANL 4-1 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics
Tigres UANL ran out comfortable winners over Guadalajara 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Tigres UANL found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Tigres UANL had 32% of the ball to Guadalajara's 68%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.67 to 0.89.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.67 for Guadalajara.
What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?
Tigres UANL 4-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 38%, draw 25%, Guadalajara 37%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.