Tigres UANL 4-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 30% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.18/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.16
-18% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
19.9 Crosses 17.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.46 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 Passes 315
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.09.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.01.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
25.08.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
22.01.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-4 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
29.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
4-1
AWAY Guadalajara
1.67 xG 0.89
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 7
203 Passes 485
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 25
5 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL ran out comfortable winners over Guadalajara 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Tigres UANL found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 32% of the ball to Guadalajara's 68%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.67 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.67 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?

Tigres UANL 4-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 38%, draw 25%, Guadalajara 37%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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