Queretaro 3-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
10%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-2.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.0pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +17%
1.33/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.31
-14% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
290 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
18.8 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Necaxa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.48 xG 1.38
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
241 Passes 361
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.07.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 3-1 HT 2-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
29.03.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
28.09.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
03.05.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
17.02.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
30.12.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
3-1
AWAY Necaxa
1.75 xG 0.46
31% Ball Possession 69%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
181 Passes 477
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
30 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro got the better of Necaxa 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Queretaro made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Queretaro had 31% of the ball to Necaxa's 69%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.75 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Queretaro and 1.33 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Necaxa?

Queretaro 3-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queretaro win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 39%, draw 29%, Necaxa 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Queretaro), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Queretaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
12 Apr 2026
02:00 Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Analysis →
04:00 Atlas vs Monterrey Analysis →
04:00 Pachuca vs Santos Laguna Analysis →
06:05 Club America vs Cruz Azul Analysis →
21:00 Pumas UNAM vs Mazatlan Analysis →