Lilleström 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.51
Over
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
61%
1.48
No
39%
2.45
Total Goals
0-1
22%
5.1
2-3
34%
1.95
4-5
32%
2.6
6+
12%
6.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.27
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
17%
4.66
X/2
7%
8.64
X/X
7%
6.23
2/1
12%
19.4
2/2
11%
5.81
2/X
10%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.4 — our 12% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Lilleström The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 The Market 28%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
Weak Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
1.80 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.58
0.94 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.56
Average Attackvs comparable teams Strong
Average Defensevs comparable teams Average
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
30.0 Crosses 17.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.89 xG 1.11
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
459 Passes 281
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.12.2025 Lilleström Lilleström 3-1 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
28.07.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 2-2 HT 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
05.05.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
17.09.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 3-1 HT 2-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.05.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 1-2 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
31.07.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 0-2 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lilleström
4-0
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
2.36 xG 0.87
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
351 Passes 343
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
34 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Lilleström vs Sarpsborg 08
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lilleström dismantled Sarpsborg 08 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lilleström as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals card split: over 2.5 goals (60%) came in, both teams to score (61%) didn't.

Under the surface, Lilleström had 49% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08's 51%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 2.36 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lilleström and 1.50 for Sarpsborg 08.

Lilleström vs Sarpsborg 08 Result & Final Score

Lilleström 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - Eliteserien on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lilleström vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 55%, draw 22%, Sarpsborg 08 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lilleström), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lilleström) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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