Al-Qadsiah 3-1 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.94
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
54%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.95
4-5 Goals
28%
2.51
6+ Goals
13%
5.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
13%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-3.8pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.8pp
54%
Away Win
46%
+7.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-9.4pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al-Qadsiah EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 50%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -22%
1.26/1.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.15
+22% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
276 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 83%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
13.7 Crosses 22.4
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al-Qadsiah
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Al Nassr
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 2.25
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
276 Passes 398
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.01.2026 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-2 HT 0-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
18.04.2025 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
22.11.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-2 HT 1-1 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
18.02.2021 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
07.11.2020 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-0 HT 0-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
06.02.2019 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-1 HT 1-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al-Qadsiah
3-1
AWAY Al Nassr
2.53 xG 0.58
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
329 Passes 296
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al-Qadsiah saw off Al Nassr 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Al Nassr at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Al-Qadsiah had 52% of the ball to Al Nassr's 48%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 2.53 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al-Qadsiah had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Al-Qadsiah and 1.33 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr?

Al-Qadsiah 3-1 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Al-Qadsiah 27%, draw 20%, Al Nassr 54%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Nassr) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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