South Melbourne 1-1 Green Gully — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Green Gully EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.01/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.70
-9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
212 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 69%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
17.2 Crosses 17.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Green Gully
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.54 xG 0.92
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
96 Passes 197
43% Pass Accuracy 60%
22 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2025 Green Gully Green Gully 1-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.07.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
12.04.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
28.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
24.02.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 1-3 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.09.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Green Gully
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne and Green Gully shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was South Melbourne at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for South Melbourne and 0.33 for Green Gully.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Green Gully?

South Melbourne 1-1 Green Gully in the Australia - National Premier League on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Green Gully?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 42%, draw 25%, Green Gully 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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