Green Gully 0-1 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.69
Draw
33%
3.8
Away
33%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
24%
+9.6pp
33%
Draw
23%
+10.3pp
33%
Away Win
53%
-20.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.4pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Green Gully EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 57%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.94/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/0.62
-33% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +92%
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
37.0 Crosses 22.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Green Gully
0W-1D-5L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.89 xG 1.60
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
234 Passes 114
66% Pass Accuracy 50%
26 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
28.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
24.02.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 1-3 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.09.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
24.06.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 0-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
26.03.2022 Green Gully Green Gully 0-2 HT 0-2 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Green Gully vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne nicked a narrow win over Green Gully 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 33% / 33% — and on the day South Melbourne made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Green Gully and 1.67 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Green Gully vs South Melbourne?

Green Gully 0-1 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Green Gully vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Green Gully win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split Green Gully 33%, draw 33%, South Melbourne 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
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