AFC Hornchurch 1-0 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 3 Sep 2024

📅03/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
3.02
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.87
6+ Goals
8%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 36% vs market 27.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.8pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 40%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -2%
0.50/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.53
-63% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Hornchurch
1-0
AWAY Farnborough
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch edged past Farnborough 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day AFC Hornchurch made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, AFC Hornchurch had 51% of the ball to Farnborough's 49%, shots finished 18-12.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Farnborough?

AFC Hornchurch 1-0 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 03/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 35%, draw 29%, Farnborough 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Farnborough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farnborough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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