Holstein Kiel 1-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 3 Sep 2025

Holstein Kiel
1-1 HT 0-1
St. Pauli
📅03/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Friendlies – 2025/2026

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.61
No
40%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
2.94
6+ Goals
14%
9.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.97
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.8
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
11%
7.22
X/2
12%
4.9
X/X
8%
5.11
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
25%
2.73
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.8 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.3pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 49%
-47% / -47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
2.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.41/0.64
+51% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +91%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.0

Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
0W-1D-5L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.21 xG 1.03
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
395 Passes 340
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.04.2025 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-2 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
29.11.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1
23.02.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 0-3 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
17.09.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 5-1 HT 3-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
19.05.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
08.11.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was St. Pauli at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Holstein Kiel and 3.00 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?

Holstein Kiel 1-1 St. Pauli in the Friendlies on 03/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 30%, draw 24%, St. Pauli 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Pauli), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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