Holstein Kiel 1-2 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
13.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.09
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
14%
7.13
X/2
14%
5.05
X/X
11%
4.7
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
19%
2.97
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
29%
+7.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.4pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 48%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-4% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
255 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.9 Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
1W-1D-4L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.76 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
382 Passes 352
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1
23.02.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 0-3 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
17.09.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 5-1 HT 3-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
19.05.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
08.11.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
17.12.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-0 HT 3-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-2
AWAY St. Pauli
0.50 xG 1.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
344 Passes 324
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli edged past Holstein Kiel 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and on the day St. Pauli made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 52% of the ball to St. Pauli's 48%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.50 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.67 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?

Holstein Kiel 1-2 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 36%, draw 24%, St. Pauli 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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