Bayern Münih 2-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2025

Bayern Münih
2-2 HT 0-0
Borussia Dortmund
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.47
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.92
2-3 Goals
35%
2.21
4-5 Goals
30%
2.43
6+ Goals
18%
4.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.77
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.6
X/1
16%
4.42
X/2
6%
12.8
X/X
10%
8.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
17.55
2/2
10%
8.75
2/X
8%
17.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.55 — our 9% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-8.7pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.1pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.5pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.7pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.8pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern Münih v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -17%
2.12/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.58
+17% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -37%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
510 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.0 Crosses 11.1
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.88 xG 1.18
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
505 Passes 362
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.03.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 3-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
08.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
23.04.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1

Bayern Münih 2-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
2-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.34 xG 1.65
62% Ball Possession 38%
28 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
568 Passes 290
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
45 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih and Borussia Dortmund couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayern Münih at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 62% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 38%, shots finished 28-11, expected goals 2.34 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.33 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund?

Bayern Münih 2-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 55%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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