Hoffenheim 2-0 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2025

Hoffenheim
2-0 HT 2-0
Mainz 05
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.43
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.1
X/1
13%
5.71
X/2
12%
6.46
X/X
16%
4.8
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
15%
4.16
2/X
7%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.0pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +3%
1.74/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.54
+10% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
22.2 Crosses 18.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.54 xG 1.73
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
383 Passes 279
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.12.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 2-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
13.04.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 4-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
26.11.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.03.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
10.09.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
05.02.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Hoffenheim 2-0 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
2-0
AWAY Mainz 05
1.69 xG 1.19
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
195 Passes 420
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim got the better of Mainz 05 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Hoffenheim found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 36% of the ball to Mainz 05's 64%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.69 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.83 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05?

Hoffenheim 2-0 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 38%, draw 28%, Mainz 05 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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