Mönchengladbach 1-2 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2025

Mönchengladbach
1-2 HT 1-1
Freiburg
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.07
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.05
X/1
13%
5.58
X/2
12%
6.93
X/X
11%
5.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.9
2/2
15%
4.31
2/X
6%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.6pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mönchengladbach v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +21%
1.61/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.42
+15% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +56%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
18.6 Crosses 14.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6

Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Freiburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.63 xG 2.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
378 Passes 384
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.11.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 3-1 HT 1-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
30.03.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-3 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
04.11.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 3-3 HT 1-3 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
04.03.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.09.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
23.04.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 3-3 HT 0-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1

Mönchengladbach 1-2 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
1-2
AWAY Freiburg
0.71 xG 1.72
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
292 Passes 457
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 42
15 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg squeezed past Mönchengladbach 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Mönchengladbach at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 42% of the ball to Freiburg's 58%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 0.71 to 1.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mönchengladbach and 2.00 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg?

Mönchengladbach 1-2 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 42%, draw 23%, Freiburg 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mönchengladbach) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mönchengladbach) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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