Shonan Bellmare 3-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 3 Sep 2025

📅03/09/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.71
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
51%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.99
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
15.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.9
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
24.1
1/X
7%
16.95
X/1
10%
10.5
X/2
23%
3.99
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.04
2/X
7%
14.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.1 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
18%
+6.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
52%
Away Win
58%
-6.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.8pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 62%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.11/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.03/1.30
-10% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -32%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
221 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.58 xG 2.49
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
276 Passes 312
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 0
07.05.2025 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-1 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
19.10.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
07.04.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
05.08.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
27.05.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
10.07.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
3-2
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare edged past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 34% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 66%, shots finished 13-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.00 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Shonan Bellmare 3-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - League Cup on 03/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 25%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 52%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ BTTS Yes
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