Neftekhimik 1-5 FK Rodina Moskva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 3 Sep 2025

📅03/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.52
Over 2.5
50%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.27
No
46%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
12%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
3%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+4.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
62%
-11.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
38%
+11.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
40%
+14.0pp
46%
BTTS No
60%
-14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva EU Bookmakers 54%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.82/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.69
-6% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftekhimik
3W-0D-2L
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
01.12.2024 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 0-3 HT 0-2 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
29.09.2024 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 2-1 HT 0-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
27.08.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-4 HT 0-2 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
13.05.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-5 HT 1-1 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
23.10.2022 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neftekhimik
1-5
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Neftekhimik vs FK Rodina Moskva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Rodina Moskva ran out comfortable winners over Neftekhimik 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FK Rodina Moskva as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Neftekhimik had 45% of the ball to FK Rodina Moskva's 55%, shots finished 8-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Neftekhimik had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Neftekhimik and 2.00 for FK Rodina Moskva.

What was the final score of Neftekhimik vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Neftekhimik 1-5 FK Rodina Moskva in the Russia - FNL on 03/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftekhimik vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Before kick-off our model rated an FK Rodina Moskva win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Neftekhimik 27%, draw 27%, FK Rodina Moskva 46%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva) ✓ BTTS Yes
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